Quick Take: Trump's odds in Manhattan jury trial
It's probably the worst place in the world for this particular trial
Here’s my analysis:
On the conviction side of the ledger:
Manhattan went 87 percent for Biden in 2020 and putting Trump in jail is received popularly among the residents. “Many” locals hate Trump with a burning passion and will look for any way to convict. A large majority of the juror pool admitted they couldn’t be unbiased and were dismissed - the rest are just liars. Seriously - Manhattanites are not Normals and they’re quite proud of that.
You may think “election interference” - Manhattanites say: “Yeah? You got a problem with that?”
Judge Merchan donated to Biden and has structured proceedings as if he’s not the least bit ashamed of that. Judge Merchan’s daughter makes her living off promoting Democrat issues and is even under contract with the Biden-Harris campaign. An honest judge would have recused - ergo, Merchan’s not an honest judge.
On the acquittal side of the ledger:
The charge sheet is awful: leveraging a purported federal crime (improper campaign finance), which the FEC and US Attorney for SDNY (and Bragg’s predecessor) refused to prosecute - as the means to turn misdemeanor financial declarations into felonies - is just absurd on its face. If the Feds didn’t consider it criminal, how can Alvin Bragg use it as such? Paying hush money (from your own personal checking account) into your lawyer-controlled escrow account so your attorney can - among other things - secure an NDA from a potentially embarrassing person - is not criminal. The FEC even said it’s not a campaign expense. So what exactly is the crime? Or the victim?
Even with 87 percent pro-Biden residents, that means there’s still 13 percent out there who voted for Trump - and an even larger number who likely didn’t vote at all.
And there’s always the outside chance a Biden-voting Manhattanite can be fair and unbiased. It’s not likely, but it’s not impossible.
On the hung jury side:
This is the most likely outcome - it only takes ONE juror to not go along with the lynch mob, and I suspect there will be several who cannot stomach a guilty verdict.
Merchan will send them back repeatedly to try for a unanimous verdict, but there’s NO WAY some of these people won’t vote to convict Trump when they get the chance. And there’s NO WAY you can draw 12 sentient beings through that juror selection process and not get at least a few sane people.
So the process is the punishment on this one. Sidelining Trump for 8 precious weeks from his campaign and denying him the chance to attend his son’s high school graduation. As Merchan would say: “Yeah, I did say he couldn’t go to Baron’s graduation. You got a problem with that?”