Quick Take: Where I think we're at now and why I think that

Familiar patterns emerge prior to every election - especially one that features Trump

At this point, with 44 days left to go in the election cycle - in a year already marked by Biden’s debate collapse, the first assassination attempt on Trump, Biden’s withdrawal from the race, Kamala Harris’ designation as the Democrat nominee, RFK Jr’s withdrawal and Trump endorsement, and now a second attempted assassination of Trump - anything can happen. This election cycle is, as they say, “one for the record books”. But by my reckoning, Trump is on track to win the presidency. Currently!

My theory is based in two areas: what reliable data (based on previous elections) are showing us, and how major media polls always behave going into a presidential election.

First, Trump won the Electoral College Vote (EV) easily in 2016 while losing the Popular Vote (PV) by -2%. In 2020, Trump barely lost the EV while losing the PV by -4% (the EV margin was like 42,000 votes among five counties in tossup states - that's very close). And in 2020 we were under Covid rules, so it's anybody's guess how many of those 42,000 votes were legit. We’re no longer under Covid rules, and the Republicans have significantly improved their early vote strategy this time. Plus, ballot drop boxes are being watched, poll watchers are alert for late night shenanigans, voter registration lists have been cleaned up, and there’s no “mass-mailing” of ballots this time. It’s not perfect, but it’s much better than 2020.

So here's the takeaway: Trump's "break even" point on the PV is around -4%. If Trump is "only" down -3 points or -2 points in the PV nationally, he still wins the EV and is the next president.

By reliable polling, Trump is ahead by +1 or +2 points nationally, putting him +4 to 5 points ahead of where he needs to be nationally to win the Electoral College.

So here's what I consider to be reliable information:

• Trump's campaign surrogates claim internal polls have him ahead nationally, leading to him campaigning in New York. The campaign, of course, won't give us the internal polling data, but Trump wouldn’t be wasting time in New York without good reason.

• According to JD Vance, Harris' own internal polls show her "in trouble" both nationally and in the swings. This is rumor mill stuff of course - no "official position". But she’s just challenged Trump to another debate (he declined), which would make no sense if she was, in fact, leading at this point.

• Rasmussen has Trump +2 nationally, which would put him well over the top in all the swings.

• NYT Siena has Trump even or +1 nationally, which would put him as very likely to win the swings he needs.

• The Teamsters union, after membership polling showed Trump was preferred nearly 2:1 over Harris, declined to make an endorsement this year.

• Trump historically outperforms the media polls, which they explain by their inability to find those first-time or estranged voters among their “likely voter” demographics. Siena and Rasmussen have no such trouble.

The rest of the media polls are working their best to try and create a Democrat win. Just like they do every election season. And why not? When your boss, her boss and the Big Boss, who reports to The Owner, are all in for the Democrat, the polling darn well better support The Narrative. And besides, everybody loves a good old-fashioned horse race. More clicks is more revenue. When Trump’s in the lead, it’s depressing - nobody clicks!

If I'm right in all this, watch for these dreadful media polls to show "tightening" in the coming 3-4 weeks. This is what many of them did in 2016 and again in 2020. They showed the Democrat way ahead in Aug-Sep, then "tightened" as we turned to Oct, so that by election day they weren't so far off they'd be totally discredited. The intent, as near as I can tell, is to suppress the Republican vote while rallying Democrats to curb stomp Trump. And generate clicks. They do it every election cycle.

What cannot be massaged away in polls designed to show a lead for Harris, even in the MSM polls, Trump dominates on the issues of most importance to voters (inflation, economy, border security/immigration). And that's only going to "break" further his way as we get closer to election day. Hence, “the tightening”.

So that’s where I think we’re really at - Trump with a sufficient lead to win the Electoral College vote and corporate media trying to save the Democrat.