Quick Take: Why Democrats Win Most Special Elections
It's not what you think - and Trump is smart to avoid these at all costs
If you haven’t caught the news today, Trump pulled Republican Rep Elise Stefanik’s nomination to be the US Ambassador to the UN. The reason is simple: the special election to replace Stefanik in New York is no slam-dunk and puts that seat at risk in a very close House of Representatives. This was a smart move. But we’re not out of the woods by a long shot.
Even in deep red districts and states like Alabama, Democrats know they stand at least a 50 percent chance of a pickup in a special election. If that district is even slightly purple - say Trump +1 or Trump +3 - that district will flip to a Dem in a special election. Every single time, without fail. You can make bank on it. And even if it’s solidly red - like Trump +10 or more - it can still flip.
Here’s how they do it.
It begins with Biden’s executive order to the entire Executive branch to do everything possible to “improve voter turnout”. An “all of government” endeavor, every department, agency and bureau was required to do something. Mostly this amounted to billions of dollars allocated over the past four years to “heighten awareness” and “make it easier to vote”. Most notably, hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars were awarded via grants to Democrat-aligned NGOs.
So federal agencies laundered our money through the Democrats’ “non-partisan” NGOs with names like Every Vote Counts! or Let’s Vote! to run their GOTV (Get Out The Vote) efforts in 2022 and 2024 —— and now in the special election districts vacated by Trump’s cabinet picks.
How this works in practice. Using our taxpayer dollars, Democrats (operating outside of the official campaign) fly in hundreds of “paid volunteers”, put them up in hotels, get them rental cars and provide them with detailed lists of registered Democrats in the district. Those lists include the name, phone number and voting propensity of all registered Democrats. High propensity voters are not targeted - they’re likely voting anyway, or are involved in the campaign itself. The target is mid- to low-propensity registered Democrat voters.
Note: These Democrat-aligned NGOs do NOT spend money on advertising for special elections. They don’t want anybody to know there’s an election happening at all. They want the lowest possible turnout on election day, especially if it’s a district that went for Trump in 2024. Less is better.
With the registered Democrat target list, operatives will systematically target the low- to mid-propensity voters with three to five contacts before election day. This will consist of an initial phone contact to verify the voter still exists and lives at the address they have. They’ll follow up with in-person visits and more phone calls. They’ll ask if the voter wishes to request a mail-in ballot. They’ll ask if they need any assistance in getting to the polling station. Are they aware of early voting opportunities? Do they know where to vote in person? Etc. Three to five contacts prior to the election with follow up on election day. Only Democrats and only low-p voters. Using out-of-state operatives funded by our tax dollars laundered through NGOs.
The goal is to get every possible Democrat turned out in a special election that will have less than 30 percent of registered voters participate. This is how Alabama got Democrat Senator Doug Jones (replaced Jeff Sessions). This is how Georgians got Democrat Senator Rafael Warnock.
And it’s how Florida’s 1st and 6th congressional districts are at risk of flipping (Matt Gaetz resigned and Mike Waltz is Trump’s National Security Advisor).
It’s perfectly legal (or “legal”) and you are paying for it!
And please don’t think DOGE can stop it - not this time! Perhaps the next, but with hundreds of millions - billions - sloshing around out there in every imaginable Democrat-aligned NGO, it will happen this time.
All we can do is to treat every one of these special elections like the nail-biter they are and get out every possible Republican voter we can in those districts. We have to fight the illegitimate (yet legal!) dollars they spend with our hard-earned money and effort.
Don’t treat these special elections as if they were normal, November elections. They are anything but that. Democrats will nationalize every one of these and pour in maximum effort to win. And they have a strong chance they will.