Where We're At the Weekend Before Game Day

We’ve been awaiting this moment for almost four years - here's what I am watching (and not!) at this point

Since Kamala Harris inherited the nomination from Joe Biden, she’s been up, then even, then lost ground, and has been trailing Trump both in the swing states and now nationally. It appears Trump’s momentum has held, and his confidence is apparent going into the final weekend campaign blitz before election day. Trump is campaigning in New Mexico - a deep blue state he lost substantially in 2020, and has been in California and New York within the past ten days. The Harris campaign has pulled funding out of North Carolina and is now focusing on Virginia, which shouldn’t be in play. Trump is expected to finish strongly in Georgia, Ohio, Arizona and North Carolina. I expect Trump will also win Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan, though not quite as strongly. If the polls have truly been missing the Trump vote, look for him to prevail in New Hampshire, Maine, Minnesota, Virginia and possibly New Mexico.

A possible, though not certain electoral vote outcome. Source 270 to win

Let’s talk to the first elephant in the room. As of this writing, 63 million voters have already voted, and Republicans are showing a massive early-vote turnout over previous elections. Roughly 33 million early in-person votes have been cast, and in those states that track party registration, 39 percent are Democrats and 36 percent are Republicans. Also keep in mind, Trump leads Harris among Independents by five points. The Republican National Committee committed to turning out the early vote and appears to have succeeded. This is a pretty big deal, because changing Republican voting habits was seen as unlikely to work or would at best yield marginal results. Some locations are reporting Republican early vote turnout is exceeding Democrats.

Why this matters: Republican Get-Out-The-Vote (GOTV) efforts can now focus exclusively on election day with a solid “bank” of votes already in hand - the same strategy Democrats have used the past two elections. So Republicans won’t lose as many votes on election day due to unforeseen conflicts - like long lines, or work, medical or family issues cropping up at the last minute. Many will have already cast their vote. If you can vote this weekend, please do so.

As an aside, I hate election season and think we should return to a single day vote, like the Constitution says. But I don’t make the rules. We should play by the rules until we can change them. If the GOP really outperforms this cycle, watch for dampened enthusiasm to go back to the old ways.

The second elephant is polling. Now I don’t recommend looking at any single poll, because every poll has anomalies, distortions, over/under samples and pollster biases. The RealClearPolitics (RCP) average of polls is supposed to correct for this. And it is helpful, but realize that RCP blends in some pretty awful polls and, because of the age of some of the data, is more of a trailing indicator - it dilutes what is currently happening with older data. The trend of polls over the past 40 days has been consistent since mid-August: Trump moving up from behind, then “tied” in late September, and now ahead. But keep this important fact in mind: in 2020 Trump barely lost the electoral vote (by some 42,000 votes over five states) and by about four percent of the popular vote when the RCP average had Trump down 7.4 points on election day. This year, Trump is up by a half a percent nationally, with recent polls showing him with a two- or three-point lead over Harris. Now either the pollsters have gotten much better at this (which I doubt) or Trump’s actual lead is looking more like 5-6 points nationally. And of course this correction flows down to the individual states, including the swing states, where it may be less pronounced, but still bodes exceptionally well for Trump.

The only polls that truly matter (at this point) are the campaigns’ own internal polls - which are outrageously expensive and frighteningly detailed. These polls inform the campaigns where to spend money, by zip code and street address, which doors to knock on, and where to find votes. Trump’s campaign has been saying for weeks now that they are ahead, while Harris’ campaign has been telling folks not to panic and not to lose hope. That speaks volumes.

The third elephant is the one that’s been with us from the beginning: the electoral environment does not favor the Democrat candidate. National right track/wrong track polling indicates that 28 percent of Americans believe the nation is on the right track. Historically there is no precedent for the incumbent party holding the White House with a “right track” number in the 20s. The issues of inflation, crime, the economy in general, multiple wars abroad and unchecked illegal immigration have voters concerned that we can’t take four more years of the current policy. And Harris is not just “of the same party” as the incumbent, she’s the sitting vice president - and has offered scant evidence of any change in direction, in fact saying “not a thing comes to mind” when asked if she’d have done anything differently the past four years. Her opponent, meanwhile, has provided specific policy positions and Day One commitments to reverse course. This has resonated with voters. This is not a predicament that Democrats could have cured with a more effective campaign, stronger messaging or even a better candidate. Despite holding a six to one campaign finance advantage, Harris’ prospects for victory remain historically dim.

It really didn’t matter who the Dems put up - AP Photo/Julia Nikhinson

This last point is a lesser pachyderm, but it is something I start focusing on as the race draws to a close. As of now, the Republicans expect to win new Senate seats in WV and MT. That puts the GOP at 51 to the Dems 49, but there are seven “toss ups”, all on the Dem side. If Trump strongly overperforms, his “coattails” may pick up one or more of the close races in OH, WI and PA. MI and NM aren’t quite as close, but a really big night for Republicans could possibly pull one of those in. Just be mindful that Dems have a huge cash advantage in every one of these races. I’d like to see a 52 or better GOP majority - it just depends on how strong the Republican turnout is against the tidal wave of spending on the Dem side.

I don’t watch the House that closely - I can’t. Not with 435 races, all of which compete every two years. Right now RCP is showing a Republican advantage on the generic ballot of about 1 point and 201 expected wins to the Dems’ 192, leaving 42 toss-ups. Johnson needs 17 wins out of those 42 to retain the gavel. Statistically, it’s harder for the Dems to take the House, but these races are very local and Dem cash advantages play an outsize role. So like in the Senate, a big night for Trump would pull more of those toss-ups into the GOP column despite Democrat spending.

So that’s the picture I see going into November 5th. Now some advice on how to stay sane over the next four days.

First, at this point, don’t expect a November surprise. With 54 percent of votes already cast by election day and most of everybody else firmly committed, it’s unlikely that a bad joke or terrible comedian at a Trump rally is going to cost him the election. Nor will Harris magically “find traction” with some new attack on Trump. Her campaign has gone from “joy” to “FascistNaziHitlerRacistDictator” and then declared Trump voters as “Garbage” in six weeks - nothing has stuck and nothing is working. In fact, each new “attack” line appears to backfire and stinks of desperation. This is a change election and Harris represents the status quo. Name-calling doesn’t change that. Nothing changes that. So avoid having a stroke or heart attack over the latest “bombshell” that erupts about every 45 minutes through this too-long weekend. Maybe re-read this column.

Second, I don’t look directly at the polls and neither should you. Continue to observe the “penumbral emanations” of the polls and campaign moods for a generalized sense of what is happening. Don’t look to be shocked or terrified, because that information is certainly out there, intended to do just that. The weekend before the election is notorious for “shock polls” that pop up out of nowhere with obscene predictions. Ignore them - mind the trend.

Third, ignore the reports of cheating. Yes, it absolutely is happening, but there is zero you or I can do about it. The best we can pray for (and we should) is that it doesn’t make a difference. Republicans have seriously upped their pre-election vote integrity game this time. Voter rolls have been purged of expired, duplicate and improper registrations. There is no mass-mailing of unrequested ballots this year. Election officials are catching and eliminating improper and illegal registrations and improper or spoiled ballots. Republicans have an army of volunteers and paid legal staff on hand to observe every step of the process in each swing state, with specific emphasis on the bad actors in Maricopa County AZ, Fulton and Dekalb Counties GA, Wayne and Oakland Counties MI, Dane and Lacrosse Counties WI, and Philadelphia, Bucks, Montgomery, Delaware, Chester and Allegheny Counties in Pennsylvania. We can only pray that efforts in those locations are catching and stopping attempts to cancel out legitimate votes with illegal votes. Once those votes are “in the system” there is nothing that can be done after the fact. We learned this in 2020. Don’t get wrapped up in the latest screaming tweets about machines “flipping” votes or other perceived irregularities. Our side has excellent people on hand to argue our case, get it before a judge and prevent fraud. So pray for those good people - they need that more than anything else we can give them at this point.

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What the pollsters and prognosticators cannot know is if you are voting - that’s the statistical wild card. If you, your family, your friends, your neighbors, your coworkers all decide to vote, or already have, they have no model to predict this. They cannot know what the actual turnout will be in advance - that’s in your hands. They can only read it after the fact. So it still comes down to you and your decision to vote. You should vote as if your single ballot will be the decisive one - the one that puts your candidate over the top. Whether you reside in solid blue California or deep red Alabama, your vote counts toward the popular vote as well as the electoral vote. It would sure be nice to win both!

Expect a long night. Expect some states won’t be called until a day or two after the election. Some states, like Pennsylvania, do not permit the counting of mailed ballots before election day. And with turnout expected to break records, election officials will have their hands full. I am hopeful these stragglers end up not mattering. My hope is for a decisive win in which the “slow to tally” states don’t decide the winner.

So let’s get out there and break some records - and send a message that’s heard loud and clear.