Post Election Quick Takes

A series of Quick Takes: how it went, how it's going, what you're likely to see and what I hope to see.

Was there ever any doubt?

While the election is a week in the rearview mirror, the counting is still ongoing - which is one reason why I waited this long to jump back into the Agora. Another reason is that in the aftermath of the election, there’s simply too much happening all at once and too much commentary to process and refine, to make sense and distill what are mostly loud voices - some of which are rational while others are just unhinged.

While I’d like to unwind and lay out detailed columns on each of these, there’s just not time in my day and besides, in many cases, there’s plenty of other content out there post-morteming the results and you’ve likely read some or most of it. So herewith, the Quick Takes:

The presidential election. Pretty much as we predicted the Friday before election day, Trump won the popular vote at +3 percent and won all the swing states, including the venerable “Blue Wall” states, giving him an Electoral College landslide of over 300 EVs. While the PV majority gives him a solid mandate to govern, he did not have a really big night, which might have brought in states like Minnesota, Colorado, New Hampshire or New Mexico. If Trump has a solid four years to keep his promises on the border, the economy, regulation, taxes and foreign entanglements, his successor (Vance or DeSantis?) may just knock back this New Blue Wall. Other issues remaining include election integrity, which continues to be problematic. Nearly all the states Harris won do not require voter ID and have other questionable election practices, including no citizenship verification. Congress can and should act - immediately - to enact federal standards for election integrity. And while they’re at it, perhaps do something to speed up the vote counting process - which inherently questions the integrity of the results.

He needs to be Senate Majority Leader

The Senate. As we predicted, the Republicans picked up WV and Montana easily. Joe Manchin announced he wouldn’t run again in +42 Trump WV because he knows he would have lost badly after being betrayed repeatedly by the Biden administration’s radical environmental agenda. Jon Tester from Montana never made sense in a +20 Trump state. There’s a price to be paid when Schumer made his Democrats walk the plank on every issue with strict party-line votes. Good riddance to both of them. Ohio and Pennsylvania flipped their Dem senators out of office as well. Sherrod Brown just doesn’t fit in a Trump +12 Ohio. Pennsylvania (Trump +2) is a surprise pickup for the Republicans with 0.6% separating Casey and McCormick. This is just outside of automatic recount territory and most of the media have called it for McCormick, who leads by roughly 40,000 votes. The Republicans have a majority now, and with McConnell stepping back (good riddance) the Republicans have a chance for real leadership change. Unfortunately, loathsome anti-Trump Texas Senator John Cornyn aspires to replace Mitt Romney as the most powerful politician on Earth as Senate Majority Leader and erstwhile Trump Containment Vessel. Note to Senate Republicans: your majority is 100% the result of Donald Trump - you should pick Rick Scott as Majority Leader in recognition of that fact. This is a secret vote, so it’s a blind guess how anybody votes - which is utter BS. Add that “secret vote” BS to the list of what needs to go.

The House. The Republicans are expected to win a 2-seat majority of 220. That’s tight. Picking Elise Stefanik from NY to be UN Ambassador, while a brilliant choice, would reduce the Republican count. She’s from a “safe” Republican district, so we expect to prevail in a special election, however it further reduces an already tight majority conference. Republicans would be better served with Stefanik in the House. Maybe send Kari Lake to the UN? They deserve it. Otherwise, all that matters at this point is that Speaker Mike Johnson keeps the gavel.

Send Kari Lake to the UN - make it Great Again!

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First Priorities. The Republicans in the House, Senate and White House have a mountain of “first things” they must do. Fortunately, they can go after nearly all of these priorities simultaneously. But at the top of the list must be election integrity. We all said “2024 will be the last secure and fair election in American history if we don’t win.” Well we won, and now we need to ensure it’s not the last. Republicans are on track, right now, to lose both the House and Senate in 2026 - that’s on rails. It will happen, because Democrats’ bespoke style of cheating affects results, especially in the House. This isn’t the Industrial-scale cheat they did in 2020, but the 2022 results are a harbinger of 2026. Dems will pour billions into that race to create false registrations, generate false ballots, harvest those ballots and win. The Republican GOTV (Get Out The Vote) strategy prevailed this time, because Trump was on the ballot - he won’t be there in 2026. The Constitution reserves to the states, the “time, place and manner” of conducting elections, however there must be some standard set. Proof of US citizenship to vote in federal elections seems reasonable. Six weeks of early voting seems obscene, where two weeks certainly sounds reasonable. Signature verification for all mailed ballots seems reasonable. Mandatory voter ID seems reasonable. Only counting ballots received on or before election day seems reasonable. Start with this and see what the Supreme Court says. To all of the above.

Mass deportations. Americans want mass deportations and Trump promised he would. I expect Executive Orders issued on Day One to close the border, and prospective migrants have already gotten the word - they’re turning around already. Finishing the wall, ending Catch and Release and reinstituting Remain in Mexico will shut the border - but deportations must happen, and on a very large scale. To start with, any migrant in the US who has a criminal record here or in his home nation must be deported along with his family (no family separations!). Regardless of pending asylum status, these people are guests in this nation, so long as they are here legally and obey the law. As for those here illegally, with no asylum status or record of having crossed the border, they are subject to deportation - with their family - upon discovery by US authorities. As for so-called “sanctuary cities” or states, if those entities refuse to surrender custody to ICE officials for deportation, they forfeit any claim on federal dollars. These lawless regions have only survived on federal largesse from Joe Biden. That needs to stop. As does the cash, EBT cards, cell phones and free housing. It sounds harsh, but compare that to what we give our veterans.

The Trump Dictatorship. Trump does not have four years. He has 100 days to establish priorities for the next TWO years, after which all bets are off. The Senate must rubber stamp his appointments. Trump should have all his EOs ready before Inauguration Day. Expect well over a hundred. Trump should strategically roll these out in tranches. Maybe ten the first day. Let the media cycle blow up. Let the Democrats scream. Let a few days go by and then release pardons for all nonviolent J6 defendants. Another few days, then release ten more EOs. Keep the Democrats and the media on their back foot, still responding to the previous tranche, then release the next. Keep them off balance and on defense. Dems will certainly get some EOs in front of a judge and get a stay, but they won’t get most. They won’t be able to. Keep moving and keep pushing, never let off the pressure. Unleash Elon Musk on the federal bureaucracy - eliminate whole departments if possible. Doing this constantly and relentlessly will keep the enemy off balance. Announce a goal to reduce the federal workforce by ten percent each year of his presidency - and demand plans on how those remaining agencies will continue to operate. Fire anybody who refuses. Release your signature tax proposals of No Tax on Tips, No Tax on Overtime and No Tax on Social Security. In other words, run the White House like you ran the campaign, constantly dominating the news cycle, before the last news cycle runs its course, drop a new bomb on the Democrats. Relentless.

Lawfare and Investigations. When you own the DOJ, lawsuits are free - Biden understood this. The difference is, Trump will investigate and prosecute those who abused the justice system and our federal agencies. The abuse of the federal bureaucracy to prosecute political opponents, propagandize, spread false information (including politicized “science”), censor Americans and unleash “lawfare” on political opponents is due a day of reckoning. The Republicans in Congress have already issued demands to the Biden administration to preserve all records. I don’t expect anybody to land in jail - though many should - I expect them to spend a fortune defending themselves. This may be the only justice we get, but if it “sends a message” to the rest of the federal workforce, that may be enough justice.

The Media and Pollsters (but I repeat myself). The mainstream media, aka the Legacy media, aka “the alphabets” plus WaPo, NYTimes, LATimes - are all bemoaning the market freefall they find themselves in. Such the pity. Look, you’ve spent 40 years actively lying to the American people. Not just “biased” - but providing an echo chamber for progressive elites while locking out rational voices. Harris enjoyed some 95 percent positive media coverage while Trump had 87 percent negative - and yet he won in a landslide. What does that say about the influence of “the media”? Let’s just be clear: you suck. The market for your product is - you. And nobody else. It’s not just that you’re “unfair” - you’re abusively so. On purpose. Those mouth-breathing zombies you put on air set forth to curb-stomp every Republican, and yet, it’s they who got curb-stomped. Because they’re imbeciles. We’ve tuned out. Moved on. We get our information - warts and all - from anywhere but you. The same goes for your pollsters - the people you hire to present data that says you’re right. We’ve kind of figured it out: they’re always wrong and so are you. I’d give you some advice on how to fix yourselves, but you’d ignore it anyway - you’re invested in your decline and that isn’t changing. For a little while longer, not much but a little, you’ll continue to enjoy ad buys from Johnson & Johnson, Astra-Zenecka, Merck, Pfizer, AbbVie, Moderna and all the other Big Pharmas that have pills to sell to the old people who comprise your audience. And Big Agra. But that racket will very soon be in decline on both ends.

On Health. RFK Jr is going to return rationality and science to our nation’s health. Not the “health care system” which is broken economically, but on how we manage our health in America. Pills only treat symptoms, they don’t cure disease. And many of the foods we eat, how they’re produced and the additives used, are banned in other modern societies. We need a federal health czar who ends the revolving door between Big Pharma, Big Agra and our health, food and drug agencies - and RFK Jr will do just that. That adage you hear in pill commercials, “If diet and exercise isn’t working for you...” will be over. Done. Fin. Our nation’s diet and lack of exercise is literally killing us - our life expectancy is declining and the years we have are spent sicker. That can and will change - and quickly. RFK Jr has said “one year” before statistically significant improvements will be observed. Big Agra and Big Pharma can stop profiting on the misery they cause.

Nuff said.

What happens to the Democrats. Democrats will soon be out of power completely at the federal level. In their current form, they are cancerous and a blight on the world. Everywhere on the planet right now, there is hope: in Ukraine, Russia, Western Europe, the Middle East, Asia, South and Central America - because America has a Boss back in charge. As I said previously, not just America, but The World Needs Trump. What we’re seeing right now, live, in real time, should be a sobering thought to all Americans - yes, Joe Biden and the Democrats wrought all that misery and chaos. The American people need a Democrat party that is rationally aligned with America and Americans first. Democrats need to be about more than anger, envy and discord. They need sound economic policy that prioritizes the health, well-being and dignity of all Americans - not select groups. And they need to stop equating America’s government with “America”. That’s never been “who we are” despite Barack Obama’s saying so. There are a million ways Democrats can be the “liberal” party in America, but using government to censor Americans, abridge their rights, punish political enemies and grow a bureaucracy to insane levels while impoverishing the middle class - that ain’t it. Maybe ask Robert F. Kennedy Jr what an alternative Democrat party should look like. He has a few ideas. The real problem the Democrats have is they have no bench. Democrats and their media suck ups have destroyed both the media and the Democrat party. It’s called the Taranto Principle. They not only don’t have any candidates, they also don’t have the bench of smart people - the analysts and idea people who craft useful, credible policy. All they have are emotionally-stunted halfwits who craft “narratives” that last for one media cycle - then crash. This is what happens when you own the media and get trophies for showing up. So maybe stop controlling the media (it isn’t helping you) and stop letting the media manipulate you. Recognize there’s a New Media out there - and it’s the Agora, where you’re expected to defend what you say with real facts that stand up to crowd scrutiny. But whatever, I’d be perfectly happy to see you stagger on into oblivion.

What happens to Republicans. It’s human nature to always over-learn the last lesson, and Republicans will be inclined to prove this out. Just ask Karl Rove, who once won an election and presumed all elections after that are just like 2004. In fact, precisely zero elections were like 2004 after that. 2026 and 2028 will not be “just like 2024” - they may be radically different elections with completely different states in play, different issues, different candidates - and new, emerging tactics. Republicans learned from 2020 and 2022 that they need to get the early vote in big, if they want to have a chance. They’ve figured out how to do that - great job! But don’t count on 2026 and 2028 hinging on early turnout. The Democrats are already feverishly at work to make 2024 an asterisk election. Michael Whatley and Lara Trump, RNC co-chairs, may be precisely the right people for the job, and they fulfilled their promises this time out. They’re going to need to be exceptionally clever to figure out how to keep Republican majorities in the House and Senate in 2026, and how to re-win the White House in 2028. Neither will be a “replay” of 2024, so I hope they’re figuring out how to do that. Start with what didn’t work this time, and why. Also, fundraising - Republicans were massively outspent this cycle. Much of this had to do with the cynical disdain we have had for the RNC - how do we fix that, how do we restore confidence to Republican donors? Making Suzi Wiles the White House Chief of Staff may be the perfect spot from which she can help the team avoid disaster going forward. And instill confidence that competence is running the show.

I want to thank everyone who turned out, turned their families and friends out, their coworkers and just plain worked to make this a successful election. You all deserve a great deal of recognition for this election, as well as guys like Scott Presler, who made his entire life focus turning out Pennsylvanians for Trump. Without heroes like these all over America, last Tuesday would not have been possible. But we have a great deal ahead of us still. Trump is ready to govern, and he is already fulfilling promises. America’s future is now hopeful and the world - yes, the world - is now anticipating the peace and normalcy of America guided by its own interests first. Great things are coming!